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President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney squared off in their first face-to-face presidential debate last night Wednesday Oct 3rd, and according to CNN phone poll, Romney won by a margin. 67% for Romney and 25% for Obama.
Preliminary data show that voters agree Romney 'won' the first presidential debate. But significantly, Obama is not losing ground
The first post-debate poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos indicates that President Obama is still leading Mitt Romney
in voting intention, by 48% to 43% – but the gap has closed from 48% to
39% pre-debate. I am wary of using a relatively untested online (not
phone) poll for analysis, but the survey trends do a good job
illustrating why Obama is vulnerable, and yet still ahead in this post-debate environment.
1). Mitt Romney remains relatively unknown, and Wednesday night probably helped his favorability
Americans know President Obama. They either approve of the job he is doing or they don't. They either hold a favorable view of him or they don't. There's not a lot that is going to change that with a month to go till election day.
As I discussed last Sunday, Obama's favorability ratings are actually historically low for a person to get elected president. In fact, no president in CBS News/New York Times, Gallup or NBC/Wall Street Journal data has ever been elected with a net favorability as low as his.
The issue has been that Mitt Romney's favorability has been even lower. Wednesday night's debate was seen by nearly 70 million people. After a strong performance, the Ipsos data has Romney gaining 10 points in net favorability. A good portion of that is Republicans coming back home. Still, if Romney can be seen as a viable alternative to the president among at least 50% of the electorate, he's at least in the ball game. Wednesday night helped him down that path.
2). Barack Obama may have to begin floating on air to win this election
Analysts like to say that Obama is defying gravity by winning in such a poor economy. I've pointed out that this belief is poppycock, as the economy is strong enough for an incumbent to get re-elected. Obama was also leading or tied with Romney on the economy in general, and on pretty much every specific economic issue, including jobs, the middle class and taxes. His lead on other issues and his overall favorability edge combined were going to carry him to victory.
The problem for Obama is that his standing on many of these economic issues may have eroded significantly. Mitt Romney gained 9 points on the economy overall, pre- and post-debate, and is up 9 points on taxes, 7 points on jobs and unemployment, and 6 points on the federal deficit (already a strong issue for Romney). If you start applying shifts like this to surveys such as the historically accurate NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, then Romney leads on these issues by 7 to 20 points. Again, Ipsos is only a one-night online survey, but the numbers must be at least somewhat worrying for the president.
3). Romney has the potential to continue to gain ground over the weekend
It usually takes time for campaign events to fully sink in with the American electorate. Consider the Democrats' highly successful convention. Obama started to gain points immediately, but it wasn't until about week after the the convention that we fully understood the full ramifications of how it shook up the race.
Immediate public reaction to the debate isn't as important as how the media portrays the debate in news coverage. It would seem that this coverage is only going to drive more supporters into the Romney camp. The initial reaction on Twitter, a good source for trends, was 3:2 in favor of Romney winning the debate. That reaction jumped to 4:1 after the debate when the conventional wisdom began to take hold. On Thursday night, Public Policy Polling found Virginia voters declaring the winner of the debate to be Romney by a 3:1 margin. That's a wider spread than any of insta-post debate national polls.
4). Despite all of this movement in Romney's direction, Obama is still at 48%
This, folks, is flatout key. Note that Romney gained ground, but Obama didn't lose any in the overall score. The fact is that in an election with strong third-party candidates, the winner is only going to need about 49% of the vote. Obama is right on the goal line. Romney would have to gain almost all the undecideds to overtake Obama. It's mathematically possible, but also mathematically unfeasible. For it to really work, Romney either has to dislodge current Obama support or change the make-up of the electorate. There's no sign he's done either yet.
5). Obama remains personally popular regardless of the issues
There are two types of fundamentals: issues-based ones and personality-based ones. President Obama led on both of these heading into the debate. Indeed, the two often coincide with one another, but not always. Al Gore won on the issues in 2000, but lost on the character traits. Todd Akin wins on the issues (save for his original comments on rape) in Missouri, but most definitely loses on the personality side.
Obama's favorability rating was unchanged pre- and post-debate. At least in the Ipsos poll, he still has higher net favorability than Romney. I wouldn't be surprised if that deteriorates, should Romney manages to lead on the key issues of the economy going forward. If, however, the issues and personality fundamentals remain in conflict, there's very little that predicts an election outcome as well as the favorability difference between the two candidates.
So, the initial polling does not change my views about debate-effects. Romney seems poised to close a 3- to 4-point gap by picking up latent support, but he is probably still going to trail a week from now.
Source: The Guardian
1). Mitt Romney remains relatively unknown, and Wednesday night probably helped his favorability
Americans know President Obama. They either approve of the job he is doing or they don't. They either hold a favorable view of him or they don't. There's not a lot that is going to change that with a month to go till election day.
As I discussed last Sunday, Obama's favorability ratings are actually historically low for a person to get elected president. In fact, no president in CBS News/New York Times, Gallup or NBC/Wall Street Journal data has ever been elected with a net favorability as low as his.
The issue has been that Mitt Romney's favorability has been even lower. Wednesday night's debate was seen by nearly 70 million people. After a strong performance, the Ipsos data has Romney gaining 10 points in net favorability. A good portion of that is Republicans coming back home. Still, if Romney can be seen as a viable alternative to the president among at least 50% of the electorate, he's at least in the ball game. Wednesday night helped him down that path.
2). Barack Obama may have to begin floating on air to win this election
Analysts like to say that Obama is defying gravity by winning in such a poor economy. I've pointed out that this belief is poppycock, as the economy is strong enough for an incumbent to get re-elected. Obama was also leading or tied with Romney on the economy in general, and on pretty much every specific economic issue, including jobs, the middle class and taxes. His lead on other issues and his overall favorability edge combined were going to carry him to victory.
The problem for Obama is that his standing on many of these economic issues may have eroded significantly. Mitt Romney gained 9 points on the economy overall, pre- and post-debate, and is up 9 points on taxes, 7 points on jobs and unemployment, and 6 points on the federal deficit (already a strong issue for Romney). If you start applying shifts like this to surveys such as the historically accurate NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, then Romney leads on these issues by 7 to 20 points. Again, Ipsos is only a one-night online survey, but the numbers must be at least somewhat worrying for the president.
3). Romney has the potential to continue to gain ground over the weekend
It usually takes time for campaign events to fully sink in with the American electorate. Consider the Democrats' highly successful convention. Obama started to gain points immediately, but it wasn't until about week after the the convention that we fully understood the full ramifications of how it shook up the race.
Immediate public reaction to the debate isn't as important as how the media portrays the debate in news coverage. It would seem that this coverage is only going to drive more supporters into the Romney camp. The initial reaction on Twitter, a good source for trends, was 3:2 in favor of Romney winning the debate. That reaction jumped to 4:1 after the debate when the conventional wisdom began to take hold. On Thursday night, Public Policy Polling found Virginia voters declaring the winner of the debate to be Romney by a 3:1 margin. That's a wider spread than any of insta-post debate national polls.
4). Despite all of this movement in Romney's direction, Obama is still at 48%
This, folks, is flatout key. Note that Romney gained ground, but Obama didn't lose any in the overall score. The fact is that in an election with strong third-party candidates, the winner is only going to need about 49% of the vote. Obama is right on the goal line. Romney would have to gain almost all the undecideds to overtake Obama. It's mathematically possible, but also mathematically unfeasible. For it to really work, Romney either has to dislodge current Obama support or change the make-up of the electorate. There's no sign he's done either yet.
5). Obama remains personally popular regardless of the issues
There are two types of fundamentals: issues-based ones and personality-based ones. President Obama led on both of these heading into the debate. Indeed, the two often coincide with one another, but not always. Al Gore won on the issues in 2000, but lost on the character traits. Todd Akin wins on the issues (save for his original comments on rape) in Missouri, but most definitely loses on the personality side.
Obama's favorability rating was unchanged pre- and post-debate. At least in the Ipsos poll, he still has higher net favorability than Romney. I wouldn't be surprised if that deteriorates, should Romney manages to lead on the key issues of the economy going forward. If, however, the issues and personality fundamentals remain in conflict, there's very little that predicts an election outcome as well as the favorability difference between the two candidates.
So, the initial polling does not change my views about debate-effects. Romney seems poised to close a 3- to 4-point gap by picking up latent support, but he is probably still going to trail a week from now.
Source: The Guardian
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